What America Grows Versus What We’re Told to Eat
The federal government recommends that Americans eat more fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. But what would happen to American agriculture if everyone actually followed that advice?
The USDA Asked That Question
Researchers with the USDA Economic Research Service examined how American agriculture might need to change if consumers followed selected recommendations in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans.
They concluded that farmers would need to produce substantially more fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. Meeting those recommendations would require changes in what was planted, where particular foods were grown, and how food moved through the agricultural system.
Would We Have Enough Farmland?
A later study created a model of the American food system through 2030. The researchers compared the foods being produced with the foods that would be needed if Americans improved the overall quality of their diets.
The model found that the United States had enough agricultural land overall, but the way that land was being used would have to change. Considerably more cropland would be needed for fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts. Less land would be needed for some other crops and for feeding animals raised for food.
Different Diets Use Land Differently
Another study compared ten possible American dietary patterns. It found that diets containing less meat could feed more people from the available agricultural land. The diets differed in how much cropland, grazing land, and perennial farmland they required.
This does not mean that America is simply running out of farmland. It means that the foods currently being produced do not necessarily match the foods people would need if everyone followed healthier eating recommendations.
Why This Matters
Agricultural policy, farm programs, markets, processing facilities, transportation systems, and consumer demand all influence what farmers grow. Changing the American diet would therefore require more than telling families to eat differently. Our agricultural system would also have to produce the recommended foods in the quantities people would need.
Original Studies and Reports
USDA Economic Research Service report
Buzby JC, Wells HF, Vocke G. Possible Implications for U.S. Agriculture From Adoption of Select Dietary Guidelines. USDA Economic Research Service. Economic Research Report No. 31. 2006.
Capacity of the U.S. food system
Conrad Z, Johnson LK, Peters CJ, Jahns L. Capacity of the US Food System to Accommodate Improved Diet Quality: A Biophysical Model Projecting to 2030. Current Developments in Nutrition. 2018;2(4):nzy007.
Land use under different diets
Peters CJ, Picardy J, Darrouzet-Nardi AF, Wilkins JL, Griffin TS, Fick GW. Carrying Capacity of U.S. Agricultural Land: Ten Diet Scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. 2016;4:000116.